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Key Points:

• BofA analyst Vivele Arya predicts total addressable market for the global semiconductor industry to attain $3.2trn by 2030, growing to $1.7trn by the end of 2026, “led by growth in memory chip and data-center demand, as well as stronger recoveries for the automotive and industrial (sectors)”.
• Says no visible indications of a slowdown in forward orders, long-term investment in development and deployment, and competitive microchip pricing – despite calls from the likes of Anthropic, OpenAI and others to put a brake on the development of recursive self-improvement, by which an AI model could become “capable of fully autonomously designing and developing its own successor”, explains Anthropic in a statement on its website.

 It points to the fact that today Anthropic engineers on average deploy 8x as much code per quarter than in the period 2021-25, to give an idea of the scale of its operations. It cautions that recursive self-improvement “also might increase the risks of humans losing control over AI systems”, in the fact of which eventuality “the ways we secure them, monitor them, and shape their behaviour all grow much more important.”

Separately, Microsoft announced a six-month consultation on an AI Code of Conduct, which was annexed into key tenets of which MobileWorldLive summarises the key points to be that 

“AI models must remain interruptible, never resist correction, interruption or shutdown, or take on goals beyond those assigned by humans. Models must also remain subordinate to humans, never expanding their authority, pursuing independent objectives or concealing information from human auditors.

• The BofA analyst reportedly wrote in a note to clients that 2027 “remains much a fully booked/contracted year” for computing power operators, networking hardware, and memory chips and that 2028 is likely to also “remain tight”.
• In the near future, the chip sector would likely “remain range-bound” i.e. within the exchange pricing peak and lowest traded value. He believes that AI developers and analog chip manufacturers will show “greater resilience” to macroeconomic pressures such as the US mid-term elections
• He highlights four stocks with the highest growth potential:

1. Micron Technology MU (0.00%)
2. Intel INTC (+5.14%)
3. Lam Research LRCX (+0.71%)
4. Applied Materials AMAT  (+0.28%) ** correct as of 17.18 GMT

• He points to the fact that the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX +1.77%) has grown 58% you, meaning semiconductors are still a bargain price relative to their growth capacity. The market cap of the chip sector – and/or its exchange traded value – is still lower than the S&P500 ( SPX +0.43%) although its profit margins are better.
• Predicts that total addressable market for wafer-fab equipment to get to $156bn 2026 and $210bn for 2027.