Share Buybacks from Centrica Directors indicate management confidence in future earnings

It was independently reported that on 21/09/26, three concurrent director share purchases meant Centrica directors gained 203,449 shares to their personal holdings, at an aggregated total of £301,477. This equity acquisition is a strong indicator in management’s confidence about the business’s future expansion. A Confidence Vote The orders were placed across the course of one…

It was independently reported that on 21/09/26, three concurrent director share purchases meant Centrica directors gained 203,449 shares to their personal holdings, at an aggregated total of £301,477. This equity acquisition is a strong indicator in management’s confidence about the business’s future expansion.

A Confidence Vote

The orders were placed across the course of one day, and executed at “prices clustered tightly between £1.479 and £1.486 per share,” indicating trades were placed “on the same day under broadly similar market conditions,” reported Divya Sood for Kalkine plc.

Smaller share acquisitions occurred under the Share Incentive Plan at £1.522 per share on 11/09/26, amounting to £184.12 each, with price points amounting to £1.521453 in Partnership Shares, and £1.5223333 in Matching Shares. The group transactions were administered via Equiniti Financial Services Ltd.

Later on 23/09/26 it was reported that Centrica directors also acquired shares via dividend reinvestment under the Share Incentive Plan, under which dividend proceeds are automatically reinvested into ordinary shares on behalf of participating plan members. CEO Christopher O’Shea acquired 349 Centrica ordinary shares at a total cost of £523.73; Executive Director Russell O’Brian acquired 120 shares at a cost of £180.08.

On 25 September it emerged non-executive directors Frank Mastiaux and Sue Whalley both acquired ordinary shares under individual share purchase agreements. Mastiaux acquired 1,506 shares at £1.492 (total £2,246.95) and Whalley acquired 653 shares at £1.492 (total £974.28).

All share purchase arrangements were notified to the market pursuant to Article 19 of the Market Abuse Regulation, reflecting standard reporting disclosure requirements for persons discharging managerial responsibilities. 

Performance-Linked Remuneration

Centrica’s results for the 6 months to June 30, released on 23 July, reported adjusted operating profits of £497mn, a yoy reduction from £549mn in 2025. Expenditure on fixed assets was responsible for some of the shortfall.

Adjusted EBITDA was £737mn, from £900mn and adjusted EPS was marginally down to 6.8p from 7.0p, reflecting an equity market adjustment in line with growth expectations. This being said, the figures for statutory operating profit climbed to £710mn from £69mn, “a reminder that reported figures at energy groups swing with the value of hedging and commodity prices,” reported Ankur Sharma also for Kalkine.

Centrica’s interim annual report stated statutory operating profit of roughly £0.7bn (H1 2025: £0.1bn loss) including £0.2bn (H1 2025: £0.6bn loss) from a net gain on re-measurements of derivative energy contracts and reversal of impairments. However net cash from investing activities was down £512mn, from £13mn the year prior.

The declining net profit can be largely attributed to the adjusted EBITDA from the infrastructure division, which fell to £355mn from £505mn following the Spirit Energy disposals and outages. The retail division which includes British Gas and Bord Gais Energy, crept up to £346mn from £338mn, thanks to better commercial performance set against higher debt servicing overheads and “transformation costs.”

Its optimisation operation, Centrica Energy, earned £87mn against £93mn and reflected “improved Gas and Power Trading performance, offset by limited optimisation opportunities and phasing of revenue in LNG.”

  • There was a net finance cost of £38m (H1 2025: £26m income) due to lower interest income on cash balances. Net cash fell to £709mn from £1.5bn end of 2025, the result of statutory net operating cashflow of £27m (H1 2025: £294m) including £126m of margin cash and collateral inflow (H1 2025: £22m outflow), with total margin cash held of £62m (H1 2025: £61m posted) at 30 June 

In a statement the CEO said,

“Volatility across energy markets has created challenges in some parts of our business, and some of our delivery has been slower than we would like. However, we have continued to invest with discipline to strengthen our portfolio and support long-term growth, making progress pivoting the Group towards more stable and predictable earnings.”

The balance sheet shows increasing capital invested, a large hike from £244mn to £698mn, with cash outflow of £570mn. Net cash fell to £709mn from £2,491mn end of 2025.  Despite the reduction in liquidity, the board increased the interim dividend by 9% to 2.0p, up from 1.83p.

  • Growth drivers:
  • Acquisition of the 850MW Severn Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) for net consideration of £367m completed, “adding further large-scale dispatchable power generation to our portfolio, underpinned by contracted capacity market revenues.”
  • Strong progress in our MAP, with 728k meters installed in H1 2026 (capital investment £133m) and
  • 2.3m meters under management at the end of the period, generating run-rate EBITDA of c.£60m per annum; unrivalled installation pipeline locks in predictable long term growth.**notes average fixed price margin per UK energy customer up 10% compared to the end of the year, against a slight fall in Retail customers. 
  • Sizewell B life extension to 2055 announced in July 2026, supported by a £70.50/MWh Contract for Difference (“CfD”) starting in 2035, “further pivoting our infrastructure portfolio towards long-term predictable earnings.”
  • Life extensions were confirmed in July 2026 for the Heysham 1 and Hartlepool nuclear stations from March 2028 to March 2030.
  • Rateable Infrastructure portfolio (MAP, Grain LNG and Sizewell C) adjusted EBITDA of £88m in H1 2026. On-track for around £175m for the full year.
  • Progressing long-term options including X-energy advanced modular reactors, behind the meter solutions, including potential data centre opportunities, and Morecambe Net Zero.

Profit Forecast

The CEO summarised the half as representing the group’s “journey to create a higher quality, more valuable Centrica.” The company reiterated long-term targets of £2.0bn in adjusted EBITDA and for EPS to double by 2030, against the benchmark measure for 2025. Its nuclear holdings were continuing operations were awarded a life extension.

In terms of profit forecasts, guidance was for retail EBITDA at the lower end of its £500mn-800mn range. It foresees approximately £250mn from optimisation of operations, £650mn-750mn from managed infrastructure and capital outlays of £1.1bn. Net EBITDA for 2027 to be about the 2026 level, which is less than analysts forecast, “although medium-term guidance of £300mn-400mn was left unchanged,” kalkine said in an analyst note.

Performance Risks

Its commodity derivatives trading arm will see diminishing returns as European gas prices stabilise reducing volatility and arbitrage opportunities. 

The figure for adjusted EBITDA is below consensus “and the softer trading outlook weighing on sentiment” said Kalkine. Retail income also faces trading risks, namely the price of bad debt and customer changing energy provider can impact upside, with guidance at the lower end of the range.

Project finance costs have long repayment tenors, with yield prices on debt lingering on balance, and returns from infrastructure revenue tied down to servicing the cost of these fixed assets. This acts to diminish liquidity due to repayment liabilities.

Government policy on energy security, pricing and standards oversight could impact the retail market, as Centrica rolls out its metered business offering.

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